Which bias is the tendency to make decisions based on an initial standard or number?

• A. Anchoring and adjustment bias
• B. Hindsight bias
• C. Overconfidence bias
• D. Confirmation bias

Answer: (A)

Anchoring is the tendency to rely heavily on the first piece of information you encounter when making decisions. That initial standard or number becomes a reference point, and people make subsequent judgments by adjusting away from it, but often not enough. For example, if the first price you see for a car is $25,000, your idea of a fair price tends to cling near that amount, and later price assessments are biased toward that anchor even if new information suggests a different value. This happens because the initial figure exerts a disproportionate influence, and adjustments based on new data are typically insufficient.

Hindsight bias would make you think outcomes were obvious after they happened, overconfidence bias would inflate your certainty about your own judgments, and confirmation bias would lead you to favor information that supports what you already believe. None of those patterns revolve around starting from an initial numerical anchor in the way anchoring does, which is why this option best captures the described tendency.